President Donald Trump has launched a major new tariff gambit aimed at ending the Ukraine war, but its success depends entirely on whether the European Union and the US Supreme Court will play along. The plan involves a joint US-EU effort to levy 100% duties on India and China to punish them for supporting Russia.
The first challenge is convincing the EU to join such a radical and potentially destabilizing trade action. The US has put the ball in Brussels’ court, stating it will only proceed if its European partners agree to the plan. This high-stakes request comes as Trump’s frustration with the war’s stalemate continues to grow.
The second, and equally significant, challenge is the looming Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s tariff authority. The court is set to hear the case in November, and a ruling against the administration would not only kill this new proposal but would also force the government to pay back tens of billions of dollars in previously collected tariffs.
This two-pronged uncertainty makes the proposal a massive gamble. It aims to counter the growing alliance between Russia, China, and India, which the US sees as a major obstacle to peace. The US has already shown its resolve with a 50% tariff on India, but this new plan would be a far more dramatic escalation.