Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is serving as the primary catalyst for NATO’s push to significantly hike defense spending, with leaders expected to endorse a new five percent of GDP target. This perceived existential threat is driving the urgency, even as the ambitious goal faces internal challenges, including Spain’s secured exclusion and President Donald Trump’s insistence that the US should be exempt.

The proposed five percent target is bifurcated: 3.5 percent for pure defense spending, a substantial increase from the current two percent minimum, and an additional 1.5 percent for critical infrastructure improvements, cyber defense, and societal preparedness. The direct link between the conflict and the need for increased readiness is a central argument for the new targets.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez confirmed Spain’s exemption, indicating that the final NATO communique would no longer mandate the target for “all allies.” This move could set a precedent for other financially constrained members, like Italy and Canada, to seek similar concessions. Trump’s persistent calls for allies to increase their contributions, coupled with his labeling of Canada as a “low payer,” further underscore the internal pressures surrounding equitable burden-sharing.

European leaders are increasingly concerned about Moscow’s aggressive actions, including sabotage and cyberattacks, and are actively preparing their citizens for the possibility of more widespread conflict. NATO experts estimate that defending against a Russian attack requires investments of at least three percent of GDP. While a 2032 deadline has been floated for achieving the five percent target, the feasibility and enforcement of this timeline remain subjects of ongoing negotiation.